Key Findings
The survey finds no clear industry consensus on how post-pandemic mortality experience should affect future mortality improvement assumptions. Assumptions continue to vary by company, product, business function, attained age, and projection horizon.
- Durational mortality improvement assumptions remain widely used, but not universally. Use remains highest for life products and is somewhat lower for annuity products.
- While the level of mortality improvement assumptions changed for some companies, the underlying framework remained remarkably consistent. Companies continue to vary assumptions primarily by attained age and gender.
- The results do not support a broad conclusion that mortality improvement assumptions have uniformly increased or decreased. Some short-term results suggest caution, while longer-term medians are stable or higher in several life and annuity categories, depending on product, function and attained age.
- Respondents continue to identify cancer and cardiovascular disease as the leading drivers of future mortality improvement. Longer-term improvement expectations also reflect increased attention to medical and technological advances, including personalized medicine, artificial intelligence, genetics and aging research.
- Mortality deterioration remains an important consideration. Respondents most often identified obesity, mental health or depression, and socioeconomic inequality as key deterioration drivers.
- COVID-19 is no longer viewed as the dominant long-term driver of mortality change, but its impact has not disappeared. Fewer than half of respondents who answered the question apply explicit COVID-19 or post-pandemic adjustments to underlying mortality rates.
Acknowledgements
The author’s deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the volunteers who generously shared their wisdom, insights, advice, guidance, and arm’s-length review of this study prior to publication. Any opinions expressed may not reflect their opinions nor those of their employers. Any errors belong to the author alone.
Project Oversight Group members:
Jean-Marc Fix, FSA, MAAA
Al Klein, FSA, MAAA
At Swiss Re:
Florian Rechfeld, PhD, Vice President, Life & Health R&D Manager
Drew Tindall, FSA, MAAA, Senior Vice President, Head Applied R&D Americas
At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:
Lisa Schilling, FSA, MAAA, Director of Practice Research
Barbara Scott, Sr. Research Administrator
The author also thanks the 47 company-country respondents who completed the survey. Their data and comments made this report possible.
FAQs
Yes, overall, the 2025 survey suggests that companies are still incorporating post-pandemic mortality experience into forward-looking mortality assumptions.
Respondents continue to identify cancer and cardiovascular disease as the primary drivers of mortality improvement across all time horizons. COVID-19 appears less prominent beyond the short-term horizon.Medical and technological advances appear more prominent in long-term expectations.
Key drivers of mortality deterioration include obesity, mental health and socioeconomic inequality.