Obesity and Its Growing Impact on Future Mortality: A Collection of Essays
Published June 11, 2026
Authors
Syed Danish Ali, CSPA
Ghecora Boyd, MPH, BSN, RN, AMB-BC, CPXP, LSSYB
Sam Gutterman, FSA, CERA, FCAS, MAAA, FCA, HonFIA
Xinyi (Cindy) Hu, ASA, MAAA
Temitope Comfort Iroko, PhD Student (Mathematics)
Sathiya Livingston
Ankit Nanda, FSA, MAAA
Niranjan Rajendran, B.Sc. (Hons)
Kayla T. Stephens, MPH
Peik Hong Tan, FSA
Sheena Thompson, DHA(c), MPH, CPhT
IIiyasu Tukur, Msc (Mathematics)
Shaquille Worrell, FSA, FCIA
Overview
This essay collection examines how rising obesity prevalence affects future mortality, highlighting obesity-related diseases, severe obesity trends, weight-loss interventions, GLP-1 medications, alternative obesity measures, and actuarial implications for mortality forecasting, insurance pricing, underwriting, and public health planning.
Key Components
- Introduction and Background on Obesity and Mortality
- GLP-1 Drugs and Insurance Implications
- Weight Maintenance, Regain, and Weight Cycling
- Anti-Obesity Medications and Mortality Trends
- Childhood Obesity and Intergenerational Risk
- Socioeconomic and Behavioral Drivers of Obesity
- Severe Obesity Trends and Mortality Effects
- Alternative Obesity Measurement Methods Beyond BMI
- Mortality Modeling for AOMs vs. Lifestyle-Based Weight Loss
- Current Trends in Obesity Management
- Multi-Dimensional Mortality Risk Frameworks
- Actuarial, Insurance, and Public Policy Implications
How might obesity and GLP-1 weight-loss medications affect future mortality?
Obesity is expected to remain a major driver of mortality through its association with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and other chronic conditions. GLP-1 and related anti-obesity medications may reduce obesity-related mortality, but their long-term impact depends on sustained use, affordability, access, and treatment effectiveness.
Award Winners
Weight Loss Drugs and Insurance: Actuarial Model and Mindset Implications of the GLP-1 Era
Syed Danish Ali, CSPA
The Weight of Change: Mortality Differences Among Weight Maintainers, Regainers, and Cyclers
Ghecora Boyd, MPH, BSN, RN, AMB-BC, CPXP, LSSYB
The Tipping Scale: Obesity, Anti-Obesity Medications and the Shifting Arc of Mortality
Sathiya Livingston
The Expanding Weight of Mortality: Reimagining Obesity’s Impact on Future Longevity
Sathiya Livingston
The Weight of Risk: Obesity, Mortality, and the Actuarial Lens
Ankit Nanda, FSA, MAAA, FCA
Obesity and Its Growing Impact on Future Mortality
Shaquille Worrell, FSA, FCIA
Remaining Essays
GLP-1s and Obesity
Sam Gutterman, FSA, CERA, FCAS, MAAA, FCA, HonFIA
Severe Obesity
Sam Gutterman, FSA, CERA, FCAS, MAAA, FCA, HonFIA
Measures of Obesity and Mortality: Strengths, Limitations, and the Need for Broader Perspectives
Xinyi (Cindy) Hu, ASA, MAAA
Mortality Experience: AOMs vs. Lifestyle-Based Weight Loss
Temitope Comfort Iroko, PhD Student (Mathematics), and Iliyasu Tukur, MSc (Mathematics)
Obesity and Its Risking Impact on Future Mortality: A Comprehensive Perspective
Niranjan Rajendran, B.Sc. (Hons)
Current Trends in Obesity Management: Population Variability and Effectiveness
Kayla T. Stephens, MPH
Beyond BMI: A Multi-Dimensional Framework for Predicting Mortality in a Dynamic Health Landscape
Peik Hong Tan, FSA
Current Trends in Obesity Management
Sheena Thompson, DHA(c), MPH, CPhT
Essay Collection
Obesity and Its Growing Impact on Future Mortality: A Collection of Essays
Suggested Citation
Ali, Syed Danish. Weight Loss Drugs and Insurance: Actuarial Model and Mindset Implications of the GLP-1 Era. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Boyd, Ghecora. The Weight of Change: Mortality Differences Among Weight Maintainers, Regainers, and Cyclers. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Livingston, Sathiya. The Tipping Scale: Obesity, Anti-Obesity Medications, and the Shifting Arc of Mortality. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Livingston, Sathiya. The Expanding Weight of Mortality: Reimagining Obesity’s Impact on Future Longevity. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Nanda, Ankit. The Weight of Risk: Obesity, Mortality, and the Actuarial Lens. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Worrell, Shaquille. Obesity and Its Growing Impact on Future Mortality. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Gutterman, Sam. GLP-1s and Obesity. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Gutterman, Sam. Severe Obesity. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Hu, Xinyi (Cindy). Measures of Obesity and Mortality: Strengths, Limitations, and the Need for Broader Perspectives. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Iroko, Temitope Comfort, and Iliyasu Tukur. Mortality Experience: AOMs vs. Lifestyle-Based Weight Loss. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Rajendran, Niranjan. Obesity and Its Risking Impact on Future Mortality: A Comprehensive Perspective. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Stephens, Kayla T. Current Trends in Obesity Management: Population Variability and Effectiveness. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Tan, Peik Hong. Beyond BMI: A Multi-Dimensional Framework for Predicting Mortality in a Dynamic Health Landscape. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Thompson, Sheena. Current Trends in Obesity Management. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Collection Citation
Society of Actuaries Research Institute. Obesity and Its Growing Impact on Future Mortality: A Collection of Essays. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, December 2025. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2026/obesity-future-mortality-essays/
Acknowledgements
The SOA Research Institute Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program thanks the following members of the Project Oversight Group (POG) for their careful review and judging of the submitted essays. Any views and ideas expressed in the essays are the authors’ alone and may not reflect the POG’s views and ideas nor those of their employers, the authors’ employers, the Society of Actuaries, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, nor Society of Actuaries members.
Eric McKeeman, FSA, MAAA, FCA
Erik Pickett, FSA, MAAA, FCA
Jean-Francois Lussier, FSA, FCIA
Jingshuang Chen, FSA, MAAA
Larry Stern, FSA, MAAA
Lauren Cross, FSA, MAAA
Marianne Purushotham, FSA, MAAA
Micah Canaday, ASA
Parag Shag, FSA, MAAA
Yutaro Kameda, FSA
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